Mortgage Weekly Update

Mortgage Rates Continue to Decline and Applications Rise Again

On Thursday, March 14, 2024, Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.74 percent, down from last week when it averaged 6.88 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.6 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.16 percent, down from last week when it averaged 6.22 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.9 percent.

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased again this week, with declines totaling almost a quarter of a percent in two weeks’ time,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Despite the recent dip, mortgage rates remain high as the market contends with the pressure of sticky inflation. In this environment, there is a good possibility that rates will stay higher for a longer period of time.”

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), mortgage applications increased 7.1 percent from one week earlier. The Refinance Index increased 12 percent from the previous week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates dropped below 7 percent last week for most loan types because of incoming economic data showing a weaker service sector and a less robust job market, with an increase in the unemployment rate and downward revisions to job growth in prior months,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Purchase application volume increased for the week but remains about 11 percent below last year’s level. By contrast, refinance volume picked up by 12 percent, with a larger, 24 percent increase in the government refinance index. While these percentage increases are large, the level of refinance activity remains quite low, and we expect that most of this activity reflects borrowers who took out a loan at or near the peak of rates in the past two years.”

More housing and market news

According to MBA, commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding at the end of 2023 was 2.8 percent higher than at the end of 2022. “The amount of commercial mortgage debt outstanding grew in the final quarter of 2023 and for the year as a whole,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Head of Commercial Real Estate Research. “However, the increase was among the slowest paces since the mid-2010s. Every major capital source increased its mortgage holdings during the year. Mortgage originations were down by roughly 50 percent in 2023 compared to 2022, but that meant that few loans were paying off, helping maintain portfolio sizes even in the face of lower inflows.”

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 275,000 jobs in February, signaling a still strong labor market. The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percent to 3.9 percent in February. In response to this news, MBA VP and Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan said,

“The strength in the job market, along with an economy that is still growing at a moderate pace, are positives for the housing market, as it supports home purchase activity and helps borrowers to stay current on their mortgage payments. However, the labor market’s continued resiliency is one of several factors keeping mortgage rates from declining much further in the near term, as it increases the likelihood that the Fed will not rush to cut rates.”

MBA Opens Doors Foundation received a pledge of $1 million from Equity Prime Mortgage (EPM) in honor of the late former MBA President and CEO David H. Stevens, CMB. With this generous pledge, Opens Doors will further deliver on Stevens’ vision of an organization that provides mortgage and rental assistance to families with critically ill or injured children, allowing parents and guardians to be by a child’s side during treatment without fear of losing their home.

Additional mortgage activity

  • The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 31.6 percent of total applications from 30.2 percent the previous week.
  • The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity remained unchanged at 7.7 percent of total applications.
  • The FHA share of total applications decreased to 12.0 percent from 12.7 percent the week prior.
  • The VA share of total applications increased to 12.2 percent from 11.4 percent the week prior.
  • The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.5 percent.

This week in mortgage rates

Rates decrease. Here’s how average fixed rates broke down:

  • 30-year fixed-rate loans: 6.74% (down from 6.88%)
  • 15-year fixed-rate loans: 6.16% (down from 6.22%)

Check back next week for the most up-to-date mortgage and housing news.


March 7 – Mortgage Rates Dip and Applications Climb

On Thursday, March 7, 2024, Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.88 percent, down from last week when it averaged 6.94 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.73 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.22 percent, down from last week when it averaged 6.26 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.95 percent.

“Evidence that purchase demand remains sensitive to interest rate changes was on display this week, as applications rose for the first time in six weeks in response to lower rates,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Mortgage rates continue to be one of the biggest hurdles for potential homebuyers looking to enter the market. It’s important to remember that rates can vary widely between mortgage lenders so shopping around is essential.”

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), mortgage applications increased 9.7 percent from one week earlier. The Refinance Index increased 8 percent from the previous week and was 2 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 13 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“The latest data on inflation was not markedly better nor worse than expected, which was enough to bring mortgage rates down a bit, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate declining slightly last week to 7.02 percent,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Mortgage applications were up considerably relative to the prior week, which included the Presidents Day holiday. Of note, purchase volume — particularly for FHA loans — was up strongly, again showing how sensitive the first-time homebuyer segment is to relatively small changes in the direction of rates. Other sources of housing data are showing increases in new listings, which is a real positive for the spring buying season given the lack of for-sale inventory.”

More housing and market news

According to MBA’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), mortgage credit availability increased by 0.2 percent to 92.9 in February. “Mortgage credit availability remains quite tight — near the lowest levels in MBA’s survey — even as application volume lags last year’s pace and as the industry continues to reduce capacity. Despite these factors, credit criteria remain conservative,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “There was a slight increase in credit availability for refinance loan programs last month. The purchase market, however, continues to be impacted by supply and affordability constraints, due to higher mortgage rates.”

MBA’s President and CEO Bob Broeksmit, CMB, issued the following statement on the passage of six fiscal year 2024 budget bills, which includes funding for the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Veterans Affairs (VA), and the Department of Agriculture (USDA):

“MBA is pleased the House has passed a spending package that includes important funding to support single-family and multifamily housing markets and consumers. 

We especially support the government spending to boost homeownership opportunities and affordable rental housing. This includes a much-needed increase in funding for Ginnie Mae salaries and expenses, dedicated funding for Federal Housing Administration (FHA) IT modernization, backing for homeownership counseling, requiring HUD to take actions to increase FHA multifamily lending for new construction and rehabilitation, and $100 million in grants to encourage localities to remove legal and regulatory barriers that impede housing development.

We also agree with the VA language regarding the need to provide timely payment relief to distressed Veteran homeowners and will continue to call on Congress to authorize and fund a permanent partial claim program.”

Additional mortgage activity

  • The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 30.2 percent of total applications from 31.2 percent the previous week.
  • The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 7.7 percent of total applications.
  • The FHA share of total applications decreased to 12.7 percent from 13 percent the week prior.
  • The VA share of total applications decreased to 11.4 percent from 11.7 percent the week prior.
  • The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.5 percent.

This week in mortgage rates

Rates drop. Here’s how average fixed rates broke down:

  • 30-year fixed-rate loans: 6.88% (down from 6.94%)
  • 15-year fixed-rate loans: 6.22% (down from 6.26%)

Check back next week for the most up-to-date mortgage and housing news.


Feb 29 – Mortgage Rates Increase Again and Applications Sink Further

On Thursday, February 29, 2024, Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.94 percent, up from last week when it averaged 6.9 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.65 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.26 percent, down from last week when it averaged 6.29 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.89 percent.

“Mortgage rates continued their ascent this week, reaching a two-month high and flirting with seven percent yet again,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “The recent boomerang in rates has dampened already tentative homebuyer momentum as we approach the spring, a historically busy season for homebuying. While sales of newly built homes are trending in a positive direction, higher rates and elevated prices continue to pose affordability challenges that may leave potential homebuyers on the sidelines.”

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), mortgage applications decreased 5.6 percent from one week earlier. The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 1 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates were little changed last week, with the 30-year conforming rate declining slightly to 7.04 percent but remaining about a quarter percentage point higher than the start of the year,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Higher rates in recent weeks have stalled activity, and last week it dropped more for those seeking FHA and VA refinances. Purchase activity is running 12 percent behind last year’s pace, but our January Builder Application Survey results showed that applications to buy new homes were up 19 percent compared to last year. This disparity continues to highlight how the lack of existing inventory is the primary constraint to increases in purchase volume. However, mortgage rates above 7 percent sure don’t help.”

More housing and market news

According to MBA’s Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI), homebuyer affordability declined in January, with the national median payment applied for by purchase applicants increasing to $2,134 from $2,055 in December.

“Homebuyer affordability conditions declined in January, with higher home prices pushing loan amounts upward and ultimately offsetting what was a monthly decline in mortgage rates,” said Edward Seiler, MBA’s Associate Vice President, Housing Economics, and Executive Director, Research Institute for Housing America. “Mortgage rates have risen throughout February and will likely continue to hamper affordability and prospective homebuyers’ ability to buy heading into spring.”

Additional mortgage activity  

  • The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 31.2 percent of total applications from 32.6 percent the previous week.
  • The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 7.5 percent of total applications.
  • The FHA share of total applications decreased to 13 percent from 13.2 percent the week prior.
  • The VA share of total applications decreased to 11.7 percent from 12.1 percent the week prior.
  • The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.5 percent.

This week in mortgage rates

Rates rise slightly. Here’s how average fixed rates broke down:

  • 30-year fixed-rate loans: 6.94% (up from 6.9%)
  • 15-year fixed-rate loans: 6.26% (down from 6.29%)

Check back next week for the most up-to-date mortgage and housing news.


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